As teachers, we’ve all stared at an IEP goal and wondered, Is this too ambitious? It’s a common question, and one that came up recently in a special education Facebook group. The post itself was simple enough: a teacher shared a decoding goal and asked whether the expectations were realistic for the student.
The goal included advanced phonics patterns, R-controlled vowels, variant vowels, and multisyllabic words, all targeted at 85 percent accuracy. The teacher added that the baseline data differed across the short-term objectives and that they didn’t want to simply increase accuracy on one objective when students typically mastered decoding skills more quickly.
It was a great question, and it’s one that deserves a deeper look—because the real answer begins with baseline data.
Start With Baseline Data: With and Without Supports
When you’re trying to determine if an IEP goal is ambitious, not ambitious enough, or just right, the first place to look is the baseline. The teacher who posted in the Facebook group had already taken that step, which is excellent. Baseline data is the foundation for setting meaningful, measurable expectations.
The most helpful approach is to gather two types of baseline data:
- Baseline without supports
- Baseline with supports
Why both? Because they tell very different stories.
Let’s take one of the short-term objectives from the post: decoding R-controlled vowel words. To collect data without supports, you’d introduce the task and observe the student’s performance with no accommodations, no prompts, and no scaffolding. Even if the score is 0 percent accuracy, that’s still valuable information.
Then, you’d repeat the same task with supports—whether that’s visual aids, phonics prompts, manipulatives, or other accommodations you typically use. Record exactly which supports you provided during baseline collection, because if they made a meaningful difference, you’ll want to include them in the IEP.
Let’s say your results look something like this:
- 0 percent accuracy without supports
- 40 percent accuracy with supports
Both numbers matter. They work together to paint a picture of what the student can do independently and what they can do with the right tools in place.
Use Past IEP Data to Predict Growth
Once you’ve gathered your baseline, the next question becomes: What kind of growth is realistic for this student over the next year?
To answer that, you’ll need to look backward before you look forward.
Review the student’s progress data from the previous IEP year (and even the year before, if available). Focus on the same academic area—in this case, decoding skills within ELA. Identify the average yearly growth the student has made in that area.
For example:
- The student is currently at 40 percent accuracy with supports.
- Past IEP data shows they typically make about 20 percent growth per year in ELA decoding skills.
If you add 20 percent to the current 40 percent baseline, you’re at 60 percent—nowhere near the 85 percent accuracy listed in the proposed goal. In this case, 85 percent would likely be too ambitious. A goal around 70 percent might be much more realistic while still pushing the student forward.
On the other hand, imagine a different scenario:
- Baseline with supports: 40 percent
- Average yearly growth from previous IEP years: 55 percent
Now you’d expect the student to reach roughly 95 percent accuracy with supports in one year. In this situation, 85 percent may not be ambitious enough.
This is how baseline data and past performance work together to guide goal-setting. The numbers may not be perfect predictors, but they provide the most accurate starting point we have.
The Limits of Facebook Advice
The original Facebook post received 23 comments—most of them simply saying, “Yes, it’s too ambitious.” And while crowd input can be helpful, it often lacks nuance because no one in the thread has access to the full data picture.
That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t ask questions in Facebook groups. These communities can be incredibly supportive and can spark important conversations. But there are two things you should keep in mind:
1. Protect Student Confidentiality
Always be mindful of what you share. Avoid posting any personally identifiable information, and ensure that your examples can’t be traced back to a specific student. FERPA matters, even in well-meaning conversations.
2. Take Advice With a Grain of Salt
Without baseline data, support levels, and past performance, no one can definitively say whether a goal is too ambitious. Use group discussions as a starting point—not the final say. You know your students. Your data tells their story better than any quick online comment ever will.
Your Data Is the Guide
Ultimately, determining whether an IEP goal is too ambitious isn’t about the percentage listed in the criteria. It’s about what the student has already shown, what supports they need to access learning, and how much growth they’ve demonstrated in previous years.
When you ground your decisions in baseline data and evidence of past progress, you’re not guessing—you’re planning intentionally.
So the next time you find yourself wondering whether a goal is just right, circle back to the data. It will point you in the direction that best supports your student’s continued growth.
Writing effective IEPs is so much easier when you have the right tools in your toolbox! Inside The Intentional IEP, you’ll get access to expert-led trainings, a searchable IEP goal bank with IEP Screeners, and ready-to-use resources that take the guesswork out of IEP writing and implementation. With the right tools at your fingertips, you’ll save time, reduce stress, and feel confident in creating IEPs that truly support your students. Join today and fill your IEP toolbox with everything you need!